BCS, NCAA Football NEWS
SEC, Big 12 Battles Help Penn State, USC
Published by MoonDog on November 6, 2008
Of the top seven teams among the latest BCS standings, three Big 12 and two SEC teams populate the list along with Penn State and Southern California.
Penn State is in good shape for a run to the BCS championship
With Alabama currently holding down the top spot followed by Texas Tech, initially you might think the nation’s top football conferences have a huge advantage of placing one of their teams in the BCS championship game.
But when you look at the remaining schedules and account for the SEC and Big 12 Conference championship games, it’s conceivable neither conference will send a representative to Miami.
While the Big 12 and SEC teams slug it out over the last month of the season, Penn State and USC could be the beneficiaries.
Penn State, currently No. 3 in the BCS standings, has navigated the most difficult teams on their schedule and have games remaining against Iowa, Indiana and No. 18 Michigan State.
Barring a meltdown, the Nittany Lions will be 12-0 and champions of the Big 10. Despite the overall strength of the Big 12 and SEC, neither conference will produce a one-loss team that will jump over Penn State in the BCS standings.
Southern California is No. 7 in the latest BCS standings and has four games remaining on their schedule, starting with No. 21 California Saturday night in Los Angeles. If the Trojans can get past the Golden Bears, they’ll have Stanford, Notre Dame and cross-town rival UCLA left to play.
USC needs a lot of luck to appear in Miami
USC is clearly better than all of those teams and should win every game. If the Trojans do successfully make it through the rest of their schedule unscathed, their only blemish will be an early season loss to Oregon State.
While that loss is damaging, it may not have an adverse effect on USC depending on how the SEC and Big 12 teams close out. But keep in mind Penn State beat the Beavers 45-14 earlier in the season, and that could be a factor if USC is in the mix with several one-loss teams.
Texas Tech’s win over Texas last week propelled them to No. 2 in the BCS, but the Red Raiders remaining schedule is daunting. Starting this Saturday, Texas Tech will face No. 9 Oklahoma State and on November 22 they’ll take on No. 6 Oklahoma.
The Red Raiders close out the regular season against Baylor and then could potentially end up in the Big 12 Conference championship game against Missouri.
If Texas Tech can win out against that level of competition, we’ll hear cries of “Guns Up” in Miami. But what happens if the Red Raiders lose one of their remaining games?
Alabama controls their fate
At the moment, Alabama is No. 1 in the BCS and controls their destiny. The Crimson Tide has three games left on their schedule, starting Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge against LSU.
If the Tide can manage to escape Tiger Stadium with a win, they’ll have remaining games against Mississippi State and Auburn, two teams they should beat.
The next test will come in the SEC championship game against Florida.
Speaking of the Gators, there may not be a team playing better than Florida. The Gators are No. 5 in the BCS and among the one-loss teams have perhaps the best chance to crash the party in Miami.
Florida has games left against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Citadel and Florida State. Should the Gators win all of those game, and they should, they’ll end up in the BCS championship game if they beat Alabama for the SEC title.
Another one-loss team that remains in the hunt for the BCS title is Texas. The Longhorns are No. 4 in the latest standings and have played their most difficult opponents, with games left against Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M.
Texas still has a shot at the BCS title
If the Longhorns can win those games, they could still end up in the Big 12 championship game. But that all depends on Texas Tech, because even if the Red Raiders lose one of their remaining games, they hold the tie-breaker over Texas.
Probably the one-loss team with the least realistic shot at making it to Miami is Oklahoma. The Sooners are No. 6 in the BCS standings and have games left against Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma could win out and still not make the Big 12 championship game. Then again, the Sooners could win out, win the Big 12 title and end up in Miami.
I don’t want to forget Utah or Boise State in this discussion. Neither of them will have a chance to appear in Miami, even if both teams complete their seasons undefeated, they won’t jump over any of the one-loss teams from the major conferences.
In defense of the Utes, I wouldn’t have a problem with them in any BCS bowl game, including the national championship. I know their win over Michigan doesn’t look like much but it’s still a huge road victory.
The Utes have also beaten Oregon State and if they finish off TCU, San Diego State and BYU, they’ll deserve a BCS bowl.
Utah in the BCS championship game?
Boise State is in good shape to have their second undefeated season in three years, but this team has too much going against it to appear in any BCS game. The Broncos have four games left against Utah State, Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State.
Boise should win all of those games, but playing in a weaker non-BCS conference doesn’t help their cause.
So which teams are going to appear in Miami? I’m going with Penn State and Florida. I don’t see the Nittany Lions losing against their remaining foes and Florida is the most well-balanced team in the nation.
Even though USC could end up 11-1, that loss to Oregon State and victories against the weaker Pac 10 schedule doesn’t get them into the top two spots in the BCS standings.
Regardless of what happens, at least we won’t have to watch another Ohio State team get their asses handed to them.
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NESW Sports Headlines 10/6/2008 | NESW Sports, Sports Videos on Thu, 6th Nov 2008 14:34
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ShooterB on Thu, 6th Nov 2008 14:42
Think maybe it’s time to take out the uncontrollable variables, and really found out which is the best team?
It’s a no win situation. Go undefeated in a power conference, and they’ll just say it’s a down year for the competition in that conference. Lose a game in a tough power conference, and they’ll just say tough luck…maybe you can have a shot next year.
Florida, Bama, Penn State, and whoever makes it out of the Big 12…you could all make a solid case for.
Even the NCAA FB video game can’t make up its mind. I go undefeated with New Mexico State (yes, that could only happen in a video game) one year, it puts me in the national championship despite coming from the WAC. Do the same thing again, it throws me in the Fiesta Bowl.
If it’s too complicated for a computer program to figure out, maybe we should try something different.
MoonDog on Thu, 6th Nov 2008 15:07
LOL – New Mexico State. I’m going to try that with North Dakota Tech.
Personally, I don’t think computers – plural – should be used. Let’s agree on one computer generated poll and go with that.
Factor in the coaches poll, then consult me and I can promise you I’ll have the two best teams playing in Miami.
Those two teams you ask? New Mexico State and North Dakota Tech.
GoPurple on Thu, 6th Nov 2008 22:19
The one guarantee is that things are going to be crazy in the BCS. I’m not sure Penn State can feel guaranteed a spot in the NC game at 12-0; the computers and voters could well move a 12-1 SEC or Big 12 champ over them. Crazier things have happened. Being leapfrogged this week by Tech cannot be reassuring if you are Penn State. Their conference schedule does them no favors, with the probability of playing only two ranked teams (at the end of the season) the whole year. And they will already be done while the Big 12 and SEC play title games, giving the winners of those games an additional opportunity to impress the voters and to move up further in the computer rankings. Frankly, if that happened it would be a poetic sort of justice, as the Big Ten has been one of the loudest opponents of anything resembling a playoff.
The opposite scenario is also possible, where the voters in the Coach’s Poll move heaven and earth to get JoePa into the NC game, even if they have to screw over a more deserving team to do it. Food for thought: is anyone more unpopular among his fellow coaches than Nick Saban?
The Big 12 gets crazy if OU (or Okie State, for that matter) wins out. If the conference ends up with a three-way tie at the top of the South Division (very, very possible) then the tiebreaker goes to the team with the highest BCS ranking; that would likely be the team with the most recent big-time win, whoever that is. You can’t be liking that if you are Mack Brown and your best remaining opponent is Kansas.