The division races in baseball are beginning to heat up with the season reaching the midway point. If you had to pick one team, which current division leader will not make the playoffs?
The six current division leaders have history on their side.
Since 1995, 69% of those teams who had the division lead at the All-Star break went on to make the playoffs.
Even so, history says at least two of these teams will be home when the Fall Classic starts.
As of July 6, here is a list of the current division leaders.
American League
East – Boston Red Sox (1 Game Lead)
Central – Detroit Tigers (1.5 Game Lead)
West – Los Angeles Angels (1 Game Lead)
National League
East – Philadelphia Phillies (1.5 Game Lead)
Central – St. Louis Cardinals (1 Game Lead)
West – Los Angeles Dodgers (7.5 Game Lead)
Three of those teams, the Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers have a solid foundation to reach the playoffs. That leaves us with the Tigers, Cardinals, and Phillies to examine.
No one expect the Detroit Tigers to be where they are, especially with them being weighed down by empty contracts. The team’s top three pitchers have been helped by their youth movement, carrying them through the first half. The Tigers own, who the second best home record in the American league, play 47 homes games in the second half.
The Cardinals are in first place thanks to the bat of one man, Albert Pujols, and a pitching staff with an ERA of 3.82, third best in the National League. The bats will come alive for the Cardinals down the stretch and help improve upon their solid 21-16 conference record.
The only team left is the defending world champion Philadelphia Phillies.
Here is a team that has been affected by lackluster hitting and key injuries to their pitching staff. Add this to the fact that it is hard to repeat as World Series champions, the Phillies appear to be the division leader who will be home during the playoffs.
In Their Favor
The one thing the Phillies have going for them is their offense. They have scored 407 runs through 80 games, which has them tied for seventh in the majors. The Phillies lead the National league with 114 homeruns to go along with their .451 slugging percentage.
Going Against Them
Currently the Phillies pitching staff boasts an ERA of 4.71, which has them ranked in the bottom two of the National League. Their ace, Cole Hamels, who has a 4-5 record with a 4.98 ERA, will need to turn around this average season if the Phillies are going to win their division.
The Phillies own a 16-22 home record, which is considerably off the pace they set in 2008 when they had a 48-33 record. Of their remaining 43 homes games, the Phillies will need to win 32 or 75% of them if they want to have any hope of turning it around. The Phillies close out the season with a four game series with Houston and a three home game series versus the Florida Marlins.
If the Philadelphia Phillies do not do something to turn around their pitching misfortune or improve their home record, they will find themselves watching the Fall Classic from their couch.
Hey MoonDog – I agree that’s its so hard to go back to back. It hasn’t happended in the NL since the Big Red Machine. They also had miraclous pitching last year – everything lined up and the BP all had career years (Madson, Lidge). You need luck on top of talent. They did it last year with smoke and mirrors so if they go out and get some SP help – they may make a run. Their offense is that good…i think you inspired them to WHUP on the reds last night – 22 runs!!!
The Phillies have plenty of offense, it’s their pitching that has to be a concern. And they have to start winning in their ball park too. The Reds have given up 32 runs in two games – ouch.
Moondog,
You won’t like this one, but Cards won’t win the division.
Cubs have their line-up in tact for the first time since early April. Ramirez back with Milton Bradley starting to swing and the pitching has been lights out. Cards can’t keep up with our starting five. Carpenter and Albert can’t do it alone.
Oh the three teams, the Phils rank at the bottom when it comes to their pitching staff. I think their offense can carry them but what happens when the bats go dry? And I am sticking with the Cards as the team to win the NL Central.
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