The second round of the 2010 NFL Playoffs will feature a pair of AFC Divisional games that will test the old saying that defense wins championships.
Can the Baltimore Ravens defense hold the Indianapolis Colts and four-time MVP Peyton Manning in check?
Will the New York Jets be able to continue their impressive late season run or will the San Diego Chargers live up to their expectations?
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
The top teams in the NFL always seem to find a way to win. The Colts proved this theory true time and time again in 2009 on their way to a 14-2 record. Can the Ravens find a way to reverse their regular season trend of losing the close games and earn a second consecutive playoff win?
If the Ravens are going to advance to the next round of the NFL playoffs, they will need to continue to build upon the success they had last week when they ran the ball at will against the New England Patriots.
The Ravens will need Ray Rice to continue the hard running style that helped carry this team into the playoffs. Over the last four weeks of the season, Rice gained 464 yards on the ground and averaged at least 4.7 yards per carry.
When they faced the Colts in November, the Ravens could only muster 98 yards on the ground while averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Colts fans should be worried that their defense has allowed 196 yards a game on the ground during the last three games of the season.
Another key for the Ravens will be their ability to score a touchdown when in the red zone. The last time these two teams met, the Ravens had five red zone possessions that translated into a missed field goal, three field goals, and a costly interception.
The Colts should come out of the gate rusty and will need to find a way to keep the game close through the first half as quarterback Manning and his stable of receivers reconnect.
The perfect solution is the Colts’ running game led by Joseph Addai. Addai found marginal success during the season when he carried the ball 219 times for 828 yards and 10 touchdowns.
To make up for the paltry 3.8 yards per carry, Addai became a more integral part in the passing game. He rankled fourth on the team with 51 receptions for 336 yards and three touchdowns.
Another area where the Colts will need to shine is with their pass defense. During their regular season meeting, quarterback Joe Flacco was able to complete 65.7% of his passes for 256 yards. The only thing that saved them was Flacco’s inability to put the Ravens in for a touchdown.
The Colts pass rush, led by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, will need to keep Flacco contained and force him to make bad throws. If they can accomplish this, the Colts secondary can shut down the Ravens wide receivers and force them to keep the ball on the ground.
There is no doubt the early lead helped the Ravens against the Patriots and it would be foolish to think they could pull off the feat again this week. The Colts will keep the game close until the third quarter when the Manning will take over and carry the Colts into the AFC Conference game.
Prediction Indianapolis 24 Baltimore 17
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
The Jets and Chargers will close out the divisional round of the NFL playoffs with what promises to be a hard fought game. The Jets own a 6-3 record on the road and have shown they can win a playoff game in a hostile environment. The Chargers have won 11 games in a row and should be fully rested coming off a bye week.
The Chargers found success in 2009 thanks to quarterback Phillip Rivers and a talented receiving group, led by Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. During the season, Gates and Jackson combined for 147 receptions for 2,324 yards with 17 touchdowns. The Chargers will use their passing game to help setup the running plays for running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles.
The Chargers defense knows they will have their hands full with Jets’ running back Shone Green and Thomas Jones. They could have a bigger problem if they ignore tight end Dustin Keller.
Last week, Mark Sanchez found Keller three times for 99 yards and one touchdown. If the Chargers defense shows any weakness in the middle of the field, Sanchez and Keller will exploit it.
The Jets offense last week was powered by their running game that ran for 182 yards on 41 carries. While rookie Shone Greene dominated the show, Thomas Jones is a name we should hear often this weekend.
During the regular season, Jones ran for over 1,000 yards for the fifth consecutive season while scoring a career high 14 touchdowns. Jones should have the fresher legs of the two and should make a big impact in the game catching the ball out of the backfield.
The Jets secondary, led by cornerback Darrelle Revis, will be tested this week when they take on a Chargers’ passing offense that is ranked fifth in the NFL and fourth in scoring. The Chargers have a pair of big play wide receivers, Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, who averaged 17.2 yards per catch and proved to be a solid deep threat for Rivers.
The key to a Jets victory will be the success of Sanchez. He will need to make a few plays this week if the Jets are going to keep up with the Chargers scoring. The Jets offensive line did not allow any sacks last week and will need to keep him upright against a Chargers defense that sacked the opposing quarterback 35 times during the season.
The Jets run in the playoffs will come to a close this weekend when the red hot Chargers show why they should represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Prediction San Diego 24 New York 10
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