As a lifelong St. Louis Cardinals fan, it pains me to write this, but I’ve never had a problem facing reality and reality tells me the Cincinnati Reds will win the NL Central.
Yea I know there’s a lot of games left to be played, including a crucial three-game series against the Reds that begins September 3 in St. Louis.
But it won’t matter if St. Louis takes all three games from Cincinnati this week because the Cardinals simply don’t have what it takes to be a champion.
St. Louis was flying high when they swept the Reds earlier this month after Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips made ill-advised comments about the Cardinals prior to their series, calling them, among other things, “little bitches“.
The Cardinals left Cincinnati on August 11 with a one-game division lead, but since then St. Louis has lost 10 of their last 15 games while the Reds have won 11 of their last 15 to fall five games back.
Those 10 losses have come against the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates and Nationals, teams that are a combined 90 games under .500, continuing a season-long trend in which the Cardinals have struggled against teams with losing records.
The Cardinals consistently poor play throughout the season isn’t the real reason why they’ve all but been eliminated from NL Central race.
The fact is, Cincinnati is better. Not because they necessarily have better players, but because they have a better team.
And it’s not just the roster that makes the Reds better, it’s their general manager Walt Jocketty, who is head and shoulders above his former minion, er, protege, John Mozeliak.
Jocketty of course was St. Louis’ GM from 1995 until a falling out with owner Bill DeWitt forced his departure following the 2007 season.
Jocketty has utilized a combination of talented young players developed in the Reds farm system and a few veteran players to serve as the backbone of the team.
Last season Jocketty acquired former Cardinal Scott Rolen from Toronto, a move that stabilized what was the Reds’ biggest problem – finding an everyday third baseman that could field and hit.
With a lineup that’s fourth in batting average and third in runs scored, the Reds are outperforming the Cardinals higher priced duo of Albert Pujols and Matt Holiday.
Cincinnati has a team payroll that’s $21 million less than St. Louis, and they’ve overcome injuries to their pitching staff and Rolen to lead the division.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, continue to be perhaps the most puzzling team in MLB.
Poor defense, horrific base running, an inability to hit with runners in scoring position, poor plate discipline and at times an overall lack of hustle have cost St. Louis at least 15 wins this season.
As if all of those problems weren’t enough, manager Tony La Russa appears utterly clueless why the Cardinals haven’t played up to their potential this season.
La Russa’s constant lineup changes for the purpose of what he believes keeps bench players sharp, has failed the Cardinals more this season than what it’s worth.
Never in the history of MLB has there been a manager who can go through his entire bullpen in one half-inning like La Russa can, virtually eliminating any chance of a pitching advantage in late innings.
While Reds’ manager Dusty Baker has never been confused with a tactical genius, he at least understands that putting your best players on the field every night gives your team the best chance to win.
St. Louis should literally be running away with the NL Central, but the realities of poor play, poor management and a bunch of yes men in the front office have brought the Cardinals down.
The realities of Cincinnati’s resurgence can be directly pinpointed to Jocketty, the man who was once responsible for making the Cardinals a consistent National League pennant contender.
