With Texas A&M becoming a member of the SEC looking more likely, the question now becomes which school will join the Aggies as the league’s 14th member?
On August 17, OrangeBloods.com published an article citing sources that claimed Texas A&M would join the SEC in three weeks. Based on Sunday’s Associated Press report, that time line appears to be accurate.
The AP spoke to officials of the Big 12 conference that expect Texas A&M to announce within the next week that it plans to leave.
When initial reports surfaced several weeks ago hinting that the Aggies were going to leave the Big 12, SEC presidents and chancellors met two weeks ago and reaffirmed their “satisfaction with the present 12 institutional alignment.”
But the OrangeBloods article noted that the president’s decision was made to give Texas A&M and the SEC time to investigate all of the potential legal issues surrounding the Aggies’ departure from the Big 12.
With Texas A&M becoming the SEC’s 13th member, the conference will then have to decide which school will become the league’s 14th member.
There are as many as 10 schools being mentioned that could receive an invitation to become the SEC’s 14th member. However, the number of schools that have a realistic chance of receiving an invitation is much shorter.
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Missouri and Louisville have all been among those schools that could be added, but half of these can be eliminated immediately.
With the possibility that Miami (FL) could receive the death penalty from the NCAA over widespread rules violations, the Hurricanes chances of joining the SEC is less than zero.
Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and Georgia Tech all make sense geographically, but it’s very unlikely that current SEC members South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky and Georgia would agree to having their in-state rivals join the conference.
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Missouri all make sense geographically as well, but none of those schools are in particularly strong television markets.
With Missouri hiring former Miami (FL) basketball coach Frank Haith, the SEC isn’t going to add a school that may have to deal with an NCAA investigation. And considering the conference has had more than its fair share of problems lately, the SEC doesn’t want another school under the NCAA microscope.
The Sooners and Cowboys are probably off the SEC’s list for reasons that have more to do with their location than their worthiness.
With Texas A&M slotted to be in the SEC West, the conference will need a school to place in the SEC East.
While it’s possible Alabama or Auburn could be moved to the SEC East allowing Oklahoma or Oklahoma State to become the seventh school in the west, that scenario doesn’t seem likely.
Now that we’ve eliminated eight schools, we’re left with Maryland and Virginia Tech.
The Terrapins are located within the Washington, D.C. television market and that certainly makes them an attractive candidate.
But the Terps football program has been a middle of the pack team in the ACC for more than a decade, and they wouldn’t be any better off in the SEC. In fact, the Terps would likely be among the lower tier teams in the SEC and their addition to the conference serves little purpose.
That leaves Virginia Tech as the school I believe is the best fit to become the SEC’s 14th member.
Geographically, the Hokies are a natural fit in the SEC East division.
Frank Beamer is entering his 25th season as the Hokies football coach, second only to Joe Paterno among coaches with the longest tenures at one school.
Beamer runs a clean program and has never run afoul of the NCAA, so that fact alone makes Virginia Tech a very attractive candidate.
The Hokies have become a perennial football power and their athletics program as a whole is in line with current SEC members.
Although Virginia Tech athletics director Jim Weaver told CBSSports.com that the Hokies would “politely decline” an offer to join the SEC, I believe that comment was made to avoid unnecessary speculation.
With Florida State likely not getting an invitation to join the SEC, Virginia Tech would have any number of reasons to make the move.
The ACC’s new television deal is nowhere near as lucrative as the SEC’s. Virginia Tech stands to make an estimated $11.9 million annually for 12 years under the terms of the new TV contract.
In contrast, the SEC disbursed a record $18.3 million to each of the league’s members in June, $6.4 million more than Virginia Tech will make under the ACC’s contract.
The Hokies will have more opportunities to appear on national television as members of the SEC, meaning more exposure that will ultimately lead to expanded recruiting bases.
And unlike the ACC, the SEC football champion is virtually guaranteed a berth in the BCS national championship game.
If Virginia Tech does receive an invitation to join the SEC, frankly I think they’d be foolish not to accept.
The landscape of college athletics will continue to be reshaped, and only those schools that have positioned themselves to generate huge revenues are going to survive.
So that brings us to our poll question. Now that Texas A&M is almost certainly set to join the SEC, which school do you believe will the league invite as the 14th member?
