We’re one day away from the start of the 2011-12 college football season, so let’s take a look at the legitimate contenders for the BCS national championship.
I’ll start with a few dark horse teams that may not be legitimate title contenders, but with a few breaks could find themselves in New Orleans on January 9, 2012.
TCU Horned Frogs
Considering they only return five starters on both sides of the ball, on paper TCU wouldn’t appear to have a shot to reach the BCS title game. But year after year, coach Gary Patterson finds a way to keep the Horned Frogs in the hunt.
If it weren’t for the Mountain West Conference showing an incredible amount of vindictiveness in retaliation against TCU for moving to the Big East Conference in 2012, the Horned Frogs could have easily gone undefeated.
TCU was scheduled to play Boise State at home on November 12, but the MWC moved the game to Boise where the Broncos are 77-2 since 1999.
A non-automatic qualifying team like TCU must be undefeated to have a chance to play for the BCS national championship. And as we’ve seen over the past several seasons, even being undefeated doesn’t help much when you’re playing in the Mountain West.
Aside from their game against Boise State, TCU’s schedule isn’t too challenging. They open the season on the road against Baylor and face BYU on October 28 at Cowboys Stadium. The Horned Frogs are good enough to win those games, meaning they should be unbeaten when they face the Broncos.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
I know what you’re thinking – old MoonDog has lost his mind. But with 19 starters returning and a strong finish to end last season, Notre Dame may be on the verge of returning to national relevance.
Notre Dame’s schedule is difficult, but not overwhelming. The Irish’s toughest games appear to be Michigan and Stanford on the road and home games against Michigan State and USC.
With Brian Kelly entering his second season at Notre Dame, the biggest challenge facing the Fighting Irish will be their ability to play up to expectations.
Notre Dame doesn’t lack talent, in fact they’ve got more than enough talent to be very competitive. The problem facing the Irish is their propensity for losing to teams they should beat, like Navy, which the Irish have lost to twice in the past three seasons.
Unlike TCU and Boise State, the Fighting Irish don’t have to be undefeated to find their way into the BCS national championship.
Kelly has the benefit of talent, depth and experience with this team and with a few fortunate bounces Notre Dame could be in New Orleans.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Before Virginia Tech receives an invitation to join the SEC, the Hokies may as well win one more ACC championship.
Virginia Tech isn’t on anyone’s radar this season and that should serve them well. Their schedule is very favorable, without one game against a preseason top 25 opponent and only one road game that might be considered difficult when they face Georgia Tech.
Believe it or not, the Hokies poor schedule might be their undoing even if they go undefeated.
The BCS rankings are based, in part, on your opponents won-loss records and factor into the overall rating, meaning that Virginia Tech isn’t going to fare well unless some of their opponents have unexpected great seasons.
And chances are if the Hokies do make it to New Orleans they’ll have to beat Florida State in the ACC championship game, which will be no easy task.
Virginia Tech could end up playing for a national championship, but in order to that they’ll need help from some of their opponents to boost their overall BCS ranking.
Now let’s move on to those teams who are the real BCS national championship contenders.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners are everyone’s top ranked team heading into the season and appear to be the overwhelming choice among the pundits to reach New Orleans.
I don’t agree.
The Sooners are good, but they won’t reach the BCS national championship game because they’ll lose at least two games.
One of those loses will come on September 17 when the Sooners face Florida State in Tallahassee. Another loss will come against one of three teams: Texas, Texas A&M or Oklahoma State.
And don’t laugh, but Oklahoma opens their season against a really good Tulsa team that could give the Sooners lots of trouble.
So you might be wondering how I could list the Sooners as serious BCS title contenders if they’ll suffer at least two losses this season.
Well, just because I believe Oklahoma will lose two games doesn’t mean they will. Oklahoma is among a handful of teams that can endure one loss and remain in the mix.
With 16 starters returning and plenty of talented players backing them up, the Sooners should be in every game this season.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is the most talented team in the nation and returns 17 starters from last season’s squad, 10 of which will make up the best defense in college football.
The Crimson Tide will break in a new quarterback this season and some believe that fact could be Alabama’s undoing.
But the Tide have the best offensive line in the nation that will keep A.J. McCarron clean long enough to hand the ball off to Trent Richardson, arguably the best running back in college football.
It’s by no means going to be a cake walk to New Orleans though, with road games against Penn State, Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn, and home games against Arkansas and LSU.
The Crimson Tide are among those teams that could suffer a loss and still make it to New Orleans, as long as that lone loss doesn’t come in the SEC championship.
But I expect Alabama to win the SEC and be one of the teams playing for the BCS national championship.
Boise State Broncos
Boise State, like TCU, is another team that could go undefeated and not be playing for a national title. That’s life in today’s college football world when you’re not playing in an automatic qualifying conference.
The Broncos return 14 starters, one of which is Heisman candidate Kellen Moore who is arguably the nation’s second best quarterback behind Stanford’s Andrew Luck.
Boise State opens the season against Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic, a game that can make or break the Broncos’ season.
If Boise State can get by Georgia in the opener, it should be smooth sailing until they face TCU at home on November 12.
I honestly don’t think the Broncos will be in New Orleans even if they do go undefeated, mainly because their schedule just isn’t strong enough to impress the computers.
But if enough teams stumble and Boise State is left standing as the nation’s only unbeaten team, they could end up playing for the national championship.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon is considered by many to make a second straight BCS national championship game appearance, but in order to that the Ducks will have several obstacles to overcome.
The first of those obstacles will be rebuilding their defensive front seven, where only two starters return from last season.
The Ducks where able to reach last season’s national championship game because they were respectable on the defensive side of the ball, but this season they simply won’t be able to outscore every opponent.
Oregon has one of the most electric offenses in the nation, but as we saw against Auburn in the BCS national championship game the Ducks can be slowed down with a physical defense with lots of speed.
And in their season opener, Oregon will face exactly that type of defense when they face LSU at Cowboys Stadium. In fact, the defense they’ll see from LSU will be better than the one they faced against Auburn.
That game could be the difference between Oregon making it to New Orleans or playing in the Rose Bowl, which isn’t a bad place to end the season but it’s not the site of the national championship.
The Ducks’ schedule isn’t overly difficult, with a home game against a pretty good Arizona State team on October 15 and a road game against Stanford on November 12 that appear to be the other potential stumbling blocks.
And this will be the first year that the Pac-12 plays a conference championship game, so Oregon will have to win that for a chance to make the BCS national title game.
LSU Tigers
Some of the recent troubles surrounding the LSU football program have many believing that the Tigers will have too many distractions leading into their season opener against Oregon.
But when you have as much talent as the Tigers do, they can withstand a few bumps in the road. And look at this team’s history over the past five years. There isn’t a luckier team in the nation, in spite of Les Miles inability to manage the clock.
The opener against Oregon is just one of many tough games the Tigers will play this season. In fact, LSU faces the most difficult schedule in the nation with road games against West Virginia, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Alabama.
The Tigers have home games against Florida, Auburn and Arkansas, meaning if they can somehow make it through that with only one loss and win the SEC championship, they’ll get a chance to play for the BCS national championship in their own back yard.
LSU is a really good football team, but they aren’t good enough to make it through that schedule with only one loss.
Florida State Seminoles
Flying under the radar somewhat is Florida State, a team with tons of talented players on the two deep depth chart and 16 starters returning from last season.
The Seminoles hired Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops’ brother Mark Stoops to be their defensive coordinator, an interesting move considering that Florida State’s season may hinge on their ability to beat the Sooners on September 17.
Aside from their games against Oklahoma and Florida, the Seminoles’ schedule isn’t too difficult. They don’t have to face Virginia Tech during the regular season and their road games against Clemson and Boston College shouldn’t prevent them from playing for the ACC championship.
Florida State has an exceptional kicking game too, an element that used to be one of the Seminoles major areas of concern. But not anymore, with Lou Groza candidate Dustin Hopkins and Ray Guy candidate Shane Powell handling the kicking and punting duties for the Seminoles.
And you won’t find two better return men in the nation than Greg Reid and LaMarcus Joyner, both of which can turn a punt or kickoff into six points.
Even if Florida State loses to Oklahoma, they can still make an appearance in New Orleans if they run the table and I believe they will.
Honorable Mention – Stanford Cardinal
I realize Stanford has the nation’s best quarterback in Andrew Luck and some think the Cardinal are among the teams who could play for the BCS national championship, but I’m not one of them.
Stanford has too many holes to fill on their offensive line and I don’t think they can make it through their last five games against Southern California, Oregon State, Oregon, California and Notre Dame without suffering one or two losses.
Honorable Mention – Texas A&M Aggies
With 18 starters returning, Texas A&M would appear to be primed to make a run for the BCS national championship. But with all the recent speculation that the Aggies will make a move to the SEC, look for every Big 12 opponent they face to do everything they can to make life miserable for them.
Aside from that, Texas A&M has a pretty tough schedule with home games against Oklahoma State, Missouri and Texas. The Aggies face Arkansas at Cowboys Stadium and they have to play Oklahoma on the road.
Like Stanford, I don’t see the Aggies making it through that schedule with less than two losses.
Honorable Mention – Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State has 16 starters returning and perhaps the nation’s second best offense behind Oregon, but the schedule will be too much.
Road games against Tulsa, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri and Texas Tech and a home game against Oklahoma will prevent the Cowboys from playing for the national championship.
So now the moment of truth. Out of the 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, which two will make it to New Orleans on January 9 for the BCS national championship?
Alabama and Florida State.
The Crimson Tide have the best defense in the nation and Trent Richardson will be able to run the ball behind the nation’s best offensive line.
A.J. McCarron isn’t flashy, but he doesn’t need to be. Alabama’s running game will be very good so the Crimson Tide should have success using play action while mixing in a few screens.
Their kicking game will need some work, but overall there isn’t a more talented team in the nation than Alabama.
Meanwhile, Florida State has lots of talent, depth, speed and experience. The Seminoles can run the ball behind their veteran offensive line and the defense will be solid.
The Seminoles have the best kicking game in the nation and a favorable schedule that’s strong enough to make the computers happy when the final BCS rankings are released.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher has a creative offensive mind that will utilize all of his talented players and propel Florida State into the BCS national championship.
When it’s all said and done, Alabama will win their second BCS national championship in three years and the sixth straight season a team from the SEC has won the title.
But what I think amounts to only one opinion, so vote in the poll below and let me know which team you believe will win the BCS national championship.
